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Black Swan Portraiture Prize $50k - A wisdom of the crowd experiment


The third richest (after the Archibald and Moran) prize for portraiture has now selected 40 finalists out of 500 entries.

I would like to ask each of you to select your top three portraits before 15 th October. The main awards will be announced on 2 November 2018. Please post your choices in this thread.

By selecting/clicking on the thumbnails a screen size version will display the artist’s name and the painting title as a caption. Then by clicking the right middle of each painting you can easily navigate through the set of finalists.

Voting format will be as usual.

1. Picasso
2. Rembrandt
3. Degas

So let’s see if the DMP crowd can select the winner.

I propose to weight and aggregate your selections with the aim of predicting the winner in an experiment that is recognised as “The Wisdom of the Crowd”. Here is the classic form of the experiment as described in Wikipedia.

The classic wisdom-of-the-crowds finding involves point estimation of a continuous quantity. At a 1906 country fair in Plymouth, 800 people participated in a contest to estimate the weight of a slaughtered and dressed ox. Statistician Francis Galton observed that the medianguess, 1207 pounds, was accurate within 1% of the true weight of 1198 pounds.[9]This has contributed to the insight in cognitive science that a crowd's individual judgments can be modeled as a probability distribution of responses with the median centered near the true value of the quantity to be estimated.[10]

In recent years, the "wisdom of the crowd" phenomenon has been leveraged in business strategy and advertising spaces. Firms such as Napkin Labs aggregate consumer feedback and brand impressions for clients. Meanwhile, companies such as Trada invoke crowds to design advertisements based on clients' requirements.[11]



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